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Prediction for CME (2026-07-09T07:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-09T07:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47469/-1
CME Note: [Preliminary] Potential weak CME arrival preceded by current sheet crossing. Characterized by an increase in B_total from 6nT to 8nT, a slight increase in speed, and a decrease in temperature. Rotation in magnetic field components is also observed. Possibly two overlapping CMEs visible to the E in STEREO A COR2 imagery and to the S/SW in GOES CCOR-1 imagery starting at 2026-07-09T07:53Z and 2026-07-09T08:23Z based on STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME(s) is an eruption from the area of Active Region 14485 (S10W34) starting around 2026-07-09T06:56Z to the SW in GOES SUVI 195 with additional eruption signatures to the NW of AR 14485 (S10W34) in GOES SUVI 195 starting around 2026-07-09T07:08Z. There is a following eruption starting around 2026-07-09T07:48Z with associated brightening and dimming to the N/NW of the Active Region spanning roughly from W25 to W10 and S00 to S12. An EUV wave is visible in GOES SUVI 284 following the main eruption with post-eruptive arcades starting around 2026-07-09T08:53Z as seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284. These eruptions are also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304 as well as in SDO/AIA wavelengths following an eclipse.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-12T02:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-12T01:48Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-07-09 11:57
 - Time at C2: 2026-07-09 07:53
 - Radial speed: 749.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S08W20
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C2.7 (S14W29). Peak at 2026-07-09 06:51
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 596.69 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2026-07-12 01:48 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.92 hours)
Lead Time: 55.63 hour(s)
Difference: 0.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2026-07-09T18:52Z
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